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Can a social networking site like Facebook accurately predict election results? When you compare fan counts and “likes” to election data from the AP, the answer may surprise you.

Randi Zuckerberg, head of Facebook’s consumer marketing division, tweeted, “In 20 of last night’s hot races, we accurately predicted 16 based on Facebook candidate ‘like’ comparisons.” And Nick O’Neill, from AllFacebook.com, reported that candidates’ fan page counts made accurate predictions 81% of the time in Senate races and 74% in House races.

Although the similarities are striking, people should be aware that there are many potential issues with this type of data. As Zuckerberg tweeted, “Many of the candidates with national appeal may have many ‘likes’ from ppl who aren’t voters in their state.”

So are Facebook fan pages a good indicator of the outcome of elections? Kind of, yes. But just because Facebook is a good way to gauge what people like, doesn’t mean it’s also a good indicator of how people will eventually act. (I hope…)

For the full report, head on over to Urlesque.com

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